UFC Vegas 93 best bets: Four picks for Perez vs. Taira, Hiestand vs. Armfield and more for Sat. 6/15 (2024)

Check out the UFC Vegas 93 oddswith our best betsfor the Saturday event, which airs on ESPN2.

UFC Vegas 93 takes at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas with an Alex Perez vs. Tatsuro Taira headliner. The events airs on ESPN2 beginning at 7 p.m. ET (4 p.m. PT) for the preliminary card and 10 p.m. ET for the main card. The full fight card is also available on ESPN+.

So where should be looking to place your bets? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and picks on Saturday’s card that present betting value.

You can find their analysis and picks on those matches plus Sean Zerillo's projections below using odds from BetMGM.

Carli Judice vs. Gabriella Fernandes

By Tony Sartori,Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:55 p.m. ET

Saturday's UFC prelims feature a flyweight bout between Carli Judice (+130) and Gabriella Fernandes (-155). Judice opened as a sizable betting underdog at +205 before the market came crashing down to its current price.

I agree with this steam, and I still think there is value in that +138 price as I make this fight out to be 50/50. The only reason oddsmakers opened Fernandes as such a heavy favorite is that she has far more experience than Judice, who has been in only four professional MMA bouts, with the latest loss coming in a Contender Series bout.

Judice earned the contract despite the closely contested split decision loss, which is due to how she just went into the octagon and relentlessly threw strikes for the entirety of the 15 minutes. That is exactly the type of fighter whom this promotion wants, and though it doesn't always translate to winning fights, it keeps them competitive on the judges' scorecards due to the nature of the fight style.

Oddsmakers are also expecting this fight to go the distance (-195), and in my mind, that clearly favors Judice in a scrap that should stay on the feet the entire time. Judice is one inch taller, two inches longer in reach and six years younger.

She also throws in much higher volume while landing at a more accurate clip than Fernandes, which will look good to the judges. While Judice has fought professionally only four times, it's not like Fernandes is some tremendous veteran; she is 8-3 professionally and 0-2 in the UFC with both of those losses coming by decision.

Fernandes didn't win a single round in either of those two fights, which means that Judice's Contender Series appearance featured more winning rounds than Fernandes has seen in her entire run in the UFC thus far.

The Pick:Carli Judice (+138 at BetRivers)

Josh Quinlan vs. Adam Fugitt

By Billy Ward,Staff Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:55 p.m. ET

The main-card opener (barring any more changes to the lineup) of UFC Vegas 93 features two aggressive fighters with little interest or ability in defending themselves.

Las Vegas native Josh Quinlan has had three of his four promotional appearances end in somebody getting knocked out (counting a Contender Series fight that was later deemed a no-contest) while absorbing nearly seven significant strikes per minute in the UFC octagon.

Quinlan (-125) will fight Adam Fugitt (-105), who has three bouts for the company – with two of those ending in knockouts and the third ending via submission following a knockdown. He’s not quite as bad defensively as Quinlan, but he still absorbs an unusually high 5.13 significant strikes per minute.

In theory both men can grapple, with both holding BJJ black belts. In practice they rarely do – except in the case of Fugitt using his grappling to set up ground and pound. This one could end in a knockout whether it happens on the feet or on the ground.

Due to his more well-rounded skill set, I’m splitting my exposure here between the fight to end in a knockout (0.65 units to win one) and a half-unit bet on Fugitt’s moneyline at +105. Ideally, we get a Fugitt knockout and cash both tickets, but this way we’re mostly covered in case of a Quinlan knockout or Fugitt victory by another method.

The Pick: Josh Quinlan vs. Adam Fugitt Ends by KO/TKO (-130 at DraftKings)

Brady Hiestand vs. Garrett Armfield

By Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx.10:55 p.m. ET

A couple of years ago, I'd typically side with the grappler at plus money in almost any matchup. However, with increased emphasis on damage as the primary scoring criteria, wrestlers who don't inflict punishment on opponents have fallen out of favor.

Brady Hiestand has scored 12 takedowns and more than 21 minutes of control time across three UFC bouts. Yet, he's attempted only 12 ground strikes, losing a split decision to Ricky Turcios in The Ultimate Fighter tournament finale due to that inactivity.

Hiestand (+160) is a powerful and proactive wrestler – from the same camp as Michael Chiesa (-190) – but he prioritizes positioning and control above damage. Winning by submission may be his likeliest path to victory against Garrett Armfield. Hiestand doesn't bank minutes on the scorecards unless he has complete control on the mat.

I could see Hiestand winning one round in his fight, but the margins are narrow in any round, given his lack of output.

Armfield, on the other hand, is a fighter who refuses to stay down. While he will almost certainly get taken down, his ability to scramble back to his feet and pour volume on opponents is a testament to his resilience. His last matchup against the well-rounded Brad Katona was likely a more difficult test than Hiestand presents. In that fight, Armfield permitted four takedowns but only spent four and a half minutes in control positions; he attempted a remarkable 162 distance strikes across the other 10:25 of the fight.

Hiestand is a more powerful wrestler than Katona, but Katona is the far better striker. And he would be a clear favorite, as he was against Armfield, if he faced Hiestand.

Armfield's lone UFC loss came in his debut when he was up a weight class on short notice against a much bigger David Onama (five inches taller, four-inch reach advantage). He rebounded with a knockout win over a one-dimensional grappler and the decision against Katona on the road in Canada.

Unless Hiestand has made the necessary improvements to make Armfield respect his striking, I expect that Armfield will find success sprawling and brawling against a pure wrestler – and potentially find a knockout. I'm going to bet Armfield at -180, and I'd play it down to -200.

The Pick: Garrett Armfield (-180 at Caesars)

Alex Perez vs. Tatsuro Taira

By Dann Stupp, Senior Editor at The Action Network

Fighter walkouts: Approx. 12:25 p.m. ET

When it comes to Saturday night's UFC Vegas 93 main event, I'm hoping for a short one.

Across the industry, the over/under for Alex Perez (+175) vs. Tatsuro Taira (-210) is set at 2.5 rounds. That's definitely on the lower side for flyweight fights, which are the most likely of all the weight classes to go to a decision. However, most 125-pounders don't pack the power and finishing ability that Perez and Taira possess.

In our official Perez vs. Taira betting preview, Action Network's MMA godfather, Sean Zerillo, made the case for underdog Perez – and he even has a juicy +470 prop bet for the Californian. I think Sean perfectly laid out the reasons this one could end early: Taira's inexperience against top-15 talent and lack of five-round fights, and Perez's strength disadvantage and poor back-take defense.

I think these dynamics set us for a bet on the under – the most entertaining bet for a UFC main event (especially for a fight that won't start until 12:30 a.m. ET for us old farts on the East Coast).

I think Perez's accurate and effective striking will find its mark on a prospect who could still use a little more seasoning. And if I'm wrong? I think Taira gets the fight where he wants it and capitalizes on a mistake from the far-from-perfect Perez, especially during a scramble.

Another point in our favor? I like the duo's stoppage rate in their wins (73% for Taira, 52% for Perez), as well as the 75% stoppage rate in Perez's losses (Taira has no losses).

However, rather than bet the Under 2.5 rounds, I'm going to take the Under 3.5 rounds (these types of bets are usually found under a heading of "Alternative Total Rounds" or "Fight Props"). Despite getting a +110 for Under 2.5 and -135 for Under 3.5, I think we're getting a ton of value for that extra 45 cents if we take Under 3.5. I think this fight has a substantial likelihood of ending in the third round, and I don't want to fail to cash my bet because I missed it by a minute or two.

Let's take the Under 3.5 rounds at Caesars or DraftKings and hope for a quick one. We all could use some extra sleep.

The Pick: Alex Perez vs. Tatsuro Taira Under 3.5 Rounds (-135 at Caesars)