HOUSTON — Baseball’s hottest team is over .500 for the first time all season, led by the sort of month that can make the Houston Astros a legitimate playoff contender.
The Astros went 17-8 in June, buoyed by resurgences from Alex Bregman and Hunter Brown, along with a bullpen that’s turned into one of baseball’s best. Houston won nine of its past 10 games, including an improbable 10-5 win Sunday against the Grimace-guided New York Mets.
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Kyle Tucker played in just two of the team’s 25 games in June. Justin Verlander went to the injured list before their 13th June contest. Still, Houston has stayed afloat and crept to within 3 1/2 games of the American League West lead. Here are three takeaways from the final week of Houston’s fabulous month.
Verlander’s murky future
Doubting Verlander is dangerous, but even he can’t extend a calendar. Time is running out for Verlander to throw 140 innings and trigger his $35 million vesting player option for the 2025 season, inviting wonder about what his future holds.
Verlander has thrown 57 1/3 innings across his first 10 starts of the season. When he’ll make his 11th is anyone’s guess. Other than to say Verlander is “feeling better,” the Astros have provided no substantial update on his condition. Verlander has deferred all questions to the team, which remains insistent this injury is just a neck issue.
Monday is the Astros’ 84th game of the season and the first day Verlander can be activated from the injured list. He did not accompany the team on the first leg of its three-city, 10-game trip and is not among Houston’s probables for the four-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays.
Sunday, general manager Dana Brown said Verlander has resumed playing catch, but intimated he’ll need a prolonged buildup. It’s almost a given that Verlander will need at least one minor-league rehab assignment before returning to the major-league rotation.
A comeback before the All-Star break is still feasible, but even if Verlander can do it, he will have no margin for error if he intends to throw 140 innings.
That Verlander only finished six innings in five of his first 10 starts inspires little hope he can work deep enough into games to collect the remaining 82 2/3 innings. Last season, Verlander did throw 92 1/3 innings across 15 starts after the All-Star break. Five of those starts featured him working seven or more innings.
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If Verlander does not reach the threshold and becomes a free agent, Houston’s 2025 rotation will include Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia, Hunter Brown and Ronel Blanco with Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss profiling as depth in the upper minor leagues.
A veteran starter shouldn’t be Houston’s foremost priority, but signing one seems prudent given the depth issues the team has encountered across the past two seasons.
If owner Jim Crane remains involved in baseball operations decisions, a reunion with Verlander can’t be ruled out. Crane already authorized an extension for Verlander before the 2019 season, a free-agent contract before the 2021 season and, in August, engineered the trade that brought Verlander back to Houston.
That Verlander left in the first place can’t be overlooked, either. Crane oversaw the baseball operations department that winter after James Click’s dismissal but watched Verlander take a two-year, $86.6 million deal with the New York Mets.
Verlander’s value will be nowhere near what it was after the 2022 season, perhaps putting Crane in a situation in which he’s far more comfortable with a player he’s very fond of having on his team.
Espada’s bullpen management
The first 83 games of Joe Espada’s managerial career have provided a glimpse into some of his philosophies, some of which he’s had to modify. Starting 7-19 has forced Espada to manage with more urgency than anyone might have anticipated, sometimes at the expense of convention.
Since May 24, closer Josh Hader has made six appearances in the ninth inning with a four-run lead. In that same span, setup men Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressly have combined for seven appearances in games Houston led by at least four runs.
Josh Hader notched his 12th save Saturday with a scoreless ninth inning in Houston’s 9-6 win over the Mets. (Luke Hales / Getty Images)
Generally, high-leverage relievers are reserved for leads of three or fewer runs, though forward-thinking franchises and managers are flexible. Houston’s circ*mstances have forced Espada to be that and more.
“It’s just more trying to make sure we secure that win. We do have some guys in the back end of our bullpen — even our middle relievers — that I feel comfortable giving the ball to at any moment of the game,” Espada said Wednesday.
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“For me, it’s not philosophical, it’s just we’re in a position that we need to try to get to .500. We have guys that are rested, so we’re trying to just secure those wins.”
Houston won that afternoon’s game against the Colorado Rockies to reach .500 for the first time all season. The six-run victory saved Espada from any difficult bullpen decisions, but the looming battle to remain .500 will test him. It’s apparent the team only truly trusts Abreu, Pressly and Hader in close games.
The emergence of Tayler Scott might allow Espada to not lean as heavily on the three established leverage relievers. Trusting Rafael Montero would make it even easier, but opponents have a .583 slugging percentage and 1.039 OPS against him since May 17.
Abreu made his 39th appearance of the season Sunday. Only seven relievers entered the day with more. Hader has made 35 appearances, four of which have included multiple innings, a departure from his past two seasons.
Scott awoke Sunday as one of just 16 relievers who has already thrown 40 innings this year. He added two more during Houston’s extra-inning win against the Mets, lowering his ERA to 1.49. Factor in how many times Scott has warmed up without entering a game and he’s among the most taxed relievers on the team. Espada is far more prone to double-barreling relievers in his bullpen than Dusty Baker, adding another wrinkle to this quandary.
Warming up two pitchers at once means the club is prepared for any in-game scenario, but how much it affects the arm that isn’t summoned is a legitimate question. Balance is needed. Montero’s pitching more like someone making $11.5 million would help, too.
The Montero problem
Only eight major-league relievers are making more money than Montero, who went unused during the Astros’ eight-reliever bullpen game Sunday against the Mets.
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José Abreu’s release makes Montero the only remaining piece of Crane’s ill-fated tenure as a baseball operations executive. The day after he dismissed Click in 2022, Crane engineered a three-year, $34.5 million contract for Montero, a man with a career 88 ERA+ and 1.45 WHIP.
According to Baseball Reference, Montero has been worth minus-0.4 wins above replacement since signing his contract. Add it to the minus-1.6 bWAR Abreu accrued, and it appears Crane might have misallocated the $93 million he handed out.
Montero’s struggles are staggering, but nowhere near as pronounced as Abreu’s. The Astros are more equipped to mask Montero’s presence on the roster, too, but Sunday must’ve offered a sobering portrait of his standing in the bullpen hierarchy. Bryan King and Luis Contreras, two rookies with a combined five major-league appearances, appeared in the game over him.
Montero has a 6.08 FIP along with a 4.45 ERA, which suggests he’s benefitted from some luck. He has pitched once in the team’s past five games, a 28-pitch outing Friday that might have had an impact on his availability for Sunday. That Scott pitched for a third consecutive day suggests all hands were on deck, though — aside from Montero’s.
The urgency with which Espada and the Astros must manage the rest of this season doesn’t allow much runway for Montero to work out his struggles in anything but mop-up duty. Espada has demonstrated far less deference to veteran players than his predecessor, too. Sunday is a perfect example.
Montero’s misery is putting undue pressure on other members of a bullpen that’s already top-heavy. Finding a team willing to take on Montero’s contract at the trade deadline will be difficult, putting the onus on the pitcher himself to work his way back into relevance.
(Top photo of Justin Verlander: Erik Williams / USA Today)
Chandler Rome is a Staff Writer for The Athletic covering the Houston Astros. Before joining The Athletic, he covered the Astros for five years at the Houston Chronicle. He is a graduate of Louisiana State University. Follow Chandler on Twitter @Chandler_Rome
